Son of a Farmer

A few have already asked me why I don’t think ethanol will not work because of my comments in the interview below. I need to clarify that statement. No doubt ethanol will work and will be an integral part of our fueling needs. My opinion is that these large multi-million gallon plants we’re constructing are way over-the-top. These companies are spreading themselves way too thin. We have to crawl before we run. We need smaller plants in each farming community so grain is not being hauled more than 40-50 miles away. It’s all about energy. How much energy will it take to make a gallon of fuel in the future? Basic mathematics. You can’t spend more energy to make energy – kinda defeats the purpose of being sustainable.

I suggest reading anything by David Blume. Such as Alcohol Can Be a Gas. He’s been at this stuff for 30 years.

Lately, the general consensus from the average American farmer is one engulfed with pessimism, fear, and uncertainty. Easy to say that may be the general attitude of the entire country or planet at this moment. But it’s a little more significant in the farming industry since we are the food chain.

I’ve spoken with several farmers lately, who’ve been at it for 30 years or more. Nobody is certain what to do really right now. With commodities still in the toilet, it doesn’t make sense for us to do as we’ve always done. Particularly now when most seed companies dealing with commodity crops in the food industry have yet to set an estimated price for the upcoming planting season. So, we have no idea really what our best options are at this point.
With trillion dollar bailouts being handed out like candy canes at a Christmas Day parade, in the back of our minds we are fearing the day of subsidies are soon over.  If that happens, most farmers are gone. At the very least, we’ll dramatically reduce the size of our farms. Our welfare is a necessity to stay afloat. Most Americans and even those from other countries don’t understand that. With input costs rising higher each year and commodity markets about as stable as Al Davis and Jerry Jones’ personnel decisions, there is less and less wiggle room on the family farm.

For instance, a used John Deere 8410 tractor with 5,000 hours sells for in the $90,000 range. (This is the equivalent of buying a 2002 pickup with 120,000 miles on it.) You can’t find a basic package 150+ hp new tractor for under $120,000.  In the cotton world at today’s market prices, it would take roughly 200 acres of cotton at one bale/acre to make $20,000 annual payments on that tractor. Gulp! Factor in one or two insurance years in a row due to drought or other acts of Nature, and it can get uncomfortable real quick.

Factor in $90,000 used cotton strippers or $160,000 brand new strippers. Factor in land payments and our beloved double taxations since we are self-employed, and we find ourselves in the red real fast. It doesn’t add up. If a farmer owns all his own equipment and it is fairly modern, we’re looking at about 400-800 acres on a lot of years just to make those payments, depending on age of equipment and size of the operation. This does not include salaries, employee wages and bonuses, fuel, pickups, insurance, seed costs, herbicides, pesticides, etc.
So what are the answers? Excellent question. We’ve been asking ourselves that for half a century. During the Agriculture Movement in the late 1970s, farmers didn’t realize they were already standing at the summit of agriculture. It’s been downhill ever since. And the slope has gotten a hell of a lot more slippery this past year with commodities mysteriously imploding like Tower 7 on 9/11.

Hard to imagine an all-out fire sell of modern machinery in the near future. But how many farmers are braced for the kind of free-fall we’re in right now? I’m already hearing stories of some maxed out at their banks, too far in the hole to start all over again. And after a man has worked for himself for 25-40 years, it’s damn near impossible to go to work for someone else until you have to.

It’s no newsflash to farmers we’re going to have to hitch up our belts another notch, grit our teeth down to the nubs, roll up our sleeves, and plunge ahead into the great unknown. We’ve done it for four or five generations. But now, we have to keep a constant watch not only on the horizon and clouds overhead but keep a constant finger on the pulse of global markets, national banking, our selves, our government, and all we hold dear.

Food prices at the grocery store could skyrocket as early as this summer due to massive droughts and crop disease affecting China’s wheat crop. Then people will get extremely pissed off. There is no more dangerous animal than one that is hungry and feels trapped. Our species is no exception. In fact, we’re much more dangerous.
What we need more than anything right now is rain. A good, slow, long rain always has a way of lifting spirits and clearing the fog in our minds. Rain doesn’t erase all the horror in the world, but it sure makes the pain much more bearable. The entire southern U.S. is suffering a massive drought right now. As is China and Australia. Let’s focus our minds on drops of rain soaking our fields. Squiggey that third eye, and smell it ridin’ in on a wild blue northern.  It’s a coming. Screw all the rest. Just give us rain.

Had the pleasure of being interviewed by Frank Aragona with Agricultural Innovations Inc. this past week. He asked me several cool questions about some of the projects I’m working on, as well as my take on various issues on agriculture’s past, present, and future. Give the podcast interview a listen if you’ve got a few minutes to pass. Thanks to Frank and all the work they do in spreading knowledge and trying to make agriculture healthier and more sustainable.

Deep down, I knew the gluttonous ways of commercial agriculture irrigation were coming to an end soon in this country. Naturally, California looks to be the first to experience Federal mandates to force them to reduce and/or eliminate irrigation for farmers due to severe drought. The entire south from California to the Carolinas are in the midst of an awful drought. According to the article, “The drought would cause an estimated $1.15 billion dollar loss in agriculture-related wages and eliminate as many as 40,000 jobs in farm-related industries in the San Joaquin Valley alone, where most of the nation’s produce and nut crops are grown.”

Here in Texas, we are about as dry as anyone. The last thing this country needs is a drought. China and Australia are also experiencing much of the same. Perhaps my South African connection can let us know what rain is like there, as well.

More good news on the world water table in agriculture. We can’t continue our current daily practices of wastefulness and gluttony. We’ll pay for it sooner than later.

Wow, here we are in 2009. Think back a year from now and how very different the world already is. Crazy thing is, everything is only going to go more bonkers over the next however many years.

Got off the phone with a friend who owns a gun dealership. He said since election night, he can’t keep any guns or ammunition in stock. Most orders are taking from six to 12 months to fill. Madness. News across the country is much the same. People beginning to invest in the 4G Economic Plan – Guns, Gold, Gardens & Groceries. Makes sense.

It’s very important we keep our heads on straight though. As long as one is prepared, panic is not necessary. It’s only when everyone is trying to prepare at the last minute is when panic occurs. This is not Armageddon, but it is one hell of a rough transition for most to endure.

We’re experiencing a meltdown of most things we hold dear – money, politics, religion, and security. As everything goes through this metamorphosis so too will we. How we handle that change is entirely up to us. Some will freak out and lose their proverbial shit. Some will live in fear and never come out of their house. Some will decide it is more than they can bear and take their own lives as several have already done across the nation. But my fellow liberators, we haven’t seen nothing yet. Stay strong or get strong, because it is going to get worse than this.
Who cares if the auto industry goes under? GM deserves to die for killing the electric car. The other two are just as doomed as they’ve done little to nothing to produce fuel-efficient automobiles when the technology has existed for two-three decades. Bye bye.
Who cares if Wall Street continues to blow away? It’s all imaginary money anyway. We’ve been playing Vegas for almost a century, and where has it gotten us? More houses, cars, or false premonitions of love? Good riddens.

Who cares if the beuracratic nature of government is whittled down to its core? We need less governing and more action from the People.

It is unfortunate many families are losing their jobs, homes, and sanity. But what we can’t do is wallow in our misery, thinking there is no reason to continue on. We simply need a new path. We need a new way of thinking, living, and being. Once that is accepted, our true path will reveal itself.

Renowned author Dmitri Orlov gave a speech in  San Francisco last week about the collapse we are experiencing right now in America. Born in Russia, he’s already seen this occur in the former Soviet Union less than 20 years ago. Sound advice from a man who’s eyes have already seen what we’re about to endure. Question is, when will America become the Former United States?
Don’t fear, my fellow liberators. Simply prepare yourselves and families for one helluva bumpy ride. Invest in the 4G Economic Plan. That makes much more sense than anything in the paper asset world.

I was going to write something sarcastic or half-way witty in honor of some of the real winners we’ve had in the oval office in recent memory. But I got home and read this gem by James Kunstler, and thought to myself, “There’s no way I can top that today.” So, here it is (click here) from the author of The Long Emergency. Enjoy.

(Back in action after a Mexico-getaway, and a bout with the Earth’s rotation.)

We officially sold out of hay this weekend. Most of our customers come from the Midland-Odessa area, where it has been just as dry there as anywhere. We sell ours cheaper than most folk because we had so much, and a lower price is reason for people to drive 60 miles to come get it. But now, the hay well has run dry.
Rain did come in two different spurts in the past week. A 0.5″ shower sprayed a fine line across the sandy belt of the Southern Plains then a little 0.2″ teased us this past Saturday. Most of our hay customers are painting grim pictures from their communities. Many people are selling horses and other livestock because they can’t afford to feed them during this dry spell. I sense a little panic in some, as larger orders flooded our phone lines the last 10 days, equaling our sells for the previous six weeks. One of my neighbors called, needing some hay after his was stolen from one of his fields. Madness.

I know rains are coming in March. Hopefully they will be in heavy doses. Let’s all focus on large drops, seeing our fields and the Earth being drenched with heavy rainstorms, covering the entire state of Texas and the rest of the south.  Let our minds and positive thinking alter weather patterns for the better.